02 02 2020 Palindrome Day

A friend from college had a saying I adopted: “Wow. Say it backwards. Wow.”

Sunday February 2 is a day that is a day it backwards. And forwards. All the same.

02/02/2020 — the same forwards as it is backwards.

The last Palindrome Date was 11/11/1111, or 900 years ago.

California Primary: How many DNC Dem Delegates in LA County?

Map of Los Angeles County with congressional district boundaries, numbers, and the number of DNC delegates for each district

Los Angeles County begins voting early in February and awards more delegates than the first two primary states. The LA County Primary is a well-kept secret. We have lots of influence for picking the Democratic Nominee but it’s not a topic of general knowledge.

I agree with what Julián Castro says about which parts of the country get the most emphasis in the Democratic Primary. He questions whether Iowa is representative of the Democratic Party, especially with a caucus process that may not be accessible, and a time and place that’s harder to get to for shift workers, to say nothing of whether Democrats in Iowa are representative of the national population as a whole.

As both my prior post and the table below show, the delegates awarded in the earliest contests are fewer than just those in LA County alone. And the timing of vote in California and LA County (and Orange County and other counties using Vote Centers) is just as early as the First Four states. Also, statewide, ballots sent to Vote By Mail voters will be mailed from Feb 5-8. The Iowa Caucus is Feb 3, same day as ballots are mailed to California voters.

Table: The First Four, California, and L.A. County

In the table below, see how California’s Primary Date is not a single day but a range of days and voting periods that takes place all month, during the same time as the First Four.

Los Angeles County alone will award more delegates to the DNC than Iowa, New Hampshire and part of Nevada. The 87 number of Pledged DNC Delegates for LA Co include delegates in districts that span neighboring counties. (CA-39 spans LA, Orange and SBdo Co). Orange County is voting using Vote Centers, too.

StatePrimary DatePledged DelegatesTotal Delegates
Iowa CaucusFeb 34149
New HampshireFeb 112433
Nevada CaucusFeb 223648
South CarolinaFeb 295463
CaliforniaFeb 3-8 PVBM ballots mailed to voters
Feb 22 Vote Centers
Mar 3 Election Day
Los Angeles County
(plus some adjacent)
same as above87

Source (delegates) The Green Papers IA NH SC NV CA

California Primary: Vote-By-Mail Registered Nonpartisans need to request a party ballot

Californians Permanent Vote By Mail? Registered Nonpartisan?Want to cast a vote in the 2020 Presidential Primary? You gotta fill out and return a postcard to your county registrar of voters.

Five Things you need to know if you are a California Voter, according to this LA Times story.

  1. Over 15 million California voters will receive VBM — Vote By Mail —ballots.
  2. Roughly 30% of CA voters are registered nonpartisan.
  3. NPP voters need to request a party ballot. Easy to do at the polls, a little harder for VBM voters.
  4. NPP VBM voters were sent a postcard from their county registrar with instructions to request a party crossover ballot.
  5. Though the “deadline” has passed, it’s not to late to return the postcard.  You can request a party crossover ballot up to Feb 25.

Paul Mitchell, the VP of Political Data Inc. and Jessica A. Levinson, Loyola Law School Professor penned this LA Times op-ed to get the word out to No Party Preference (NPP) voters so they’ll get a cross-over ballot.

If you are a nonpartisan voter, you may request a ballot from the Democratic, Libertarian or American Independent parties. Only those three parties allow nonpartisan voters to “cross over” into their primary elections. You cannot ask for a crossover ballot to vote in the Republican presidential primary, because that party’s leaders closed their primary to nonpartisan voters.

If you are a nonpartisan voter who votes the old-fashioned way, at a polling place, you only need to ask your poll worker for a presidential ballot that includes the Democratic, Libertarian or American Independent candidates. But if you are set to receive your ballot in the mail, you will have to complete and return a postcard you should have received from your county registrar.

There’s a bit of a Voter UI issue here, though.

If you’re NPP, do you know it? “Polling by Capitol Weekly shows that 17% of nonpartisan voters believe they are registered Democrats and another 7% think they are registered Republicans.” Given the state’s population, 17% of 30% of voters is a big number. (I’m a registered Democrat, and the Democratic Presidential Primary is where real decision making will take place.) Don’t know if you are a NPP voter?  Check your registration here: https://voterstatus.sos.ca.gov/ 

What is the postcard return deadline, anyway? The postcards sent to NPP VBM voters say to return them by December 20 or December 31 of last year. I’ll take a guess for those early dates. Vote by Mail ballots are to be mailed to voters from Feb 3-8. The early date to ask for a crossover ballot is to ensure that a voter gets a crossover ballot when those are sent. It. is. not. too. late. 

If one of these postcards is sitting on your kitchen counter and the return date has passed, just send it in. Despite the “deadlines” on the postcards, the [LA County] registrar will accept requests for crossover ballots up to seven days before the March 3 election, making Feb. 25 the actual deadline for requests. The request can even be made online. [for LA County voters]

The above paragraph, being published in the LA Times, focuses on LA County. What about all the other counties?

The California Secretary of State is ON IT.

Just as I went to check out info, I saw a tweet from the Alex Padilla, the California Secretary of State, announcing a website for all Californians: howtovoteforpresident.sos.ca.gov. It covers the NPP postcard process.

I’ve put in a request to Paul Mitchell for a link to online request forms for other counties in California and will update this post when I hear back.

update. Orange County Registrar of Voters has a page addressing this. (via tweet from OC Registrar)

Acronym Soup guide. So many acronyms. So much confusion.

  • NPP — No Party Preference (formerly Decline to State)
  • VBM — Vote by Mail. Also referred to as PVBM, Permanent Vote By Mail
  • UI — User Interface

2020 Primary in California starts earlier than you think!

On Feb.3, 2020, less than a year from now, approximately 200,000 voters in Iowa will participate in a Democratic caucus and, simultaneously, California counties will mail out to voters over 16 million ballots, 75% of whom will be eligible to vote in the Democratic primary.

Almost a year ago, Paul Mitchell at The Capitol Weekly wrote about California’s role in the 2020 presidential primary.

On Feb.3, 2020, … approximately 200,000 voters in Iowa will participate in a Democratic caucus and, simultaneously, California counties will mail out to voters over 16 million ballots, 75% of whom will be eligible to vote in the Democratic primary.

So many California ballots, so little attention paid to California as an early primary state. Candidates have been spending much of their time in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina, competing heavily for “first in the nation” primary contests.

But California. Oh, California. During the first week of February, this state has many many more  people—Vote by Mail voters— in a position to cast their votes in the California Democratic Primary than Iowa Democrats participating in that state’s Caucuses. So where are the candidates? (They’ve been making appearances but only a handful per candidate, not the close-up retail politicking that Iowa and New Hampshire are accustomed to.)

California’s total number of DNC delegates pledged from primary outcome is 415 (total 494 which includes at-large and Electeds and Party leaders— super-delegates.) Here’s how California compares to the earliest 4 states. When we all vote and how many delegates we send to the DNC to nominate the Democratic Candidate for President.

StatePrimary DatePledged DelegatesTotal Delegates
Iowa CaucusFeb 34149
New HampshireFeb 112433
Nevada CaucusFeb 223648
South CarolinaFeb 295463
CaliforniaFeb 3-8 PVBM ballots mailed to voters
Feb 22 Vote Centers
Mar 3 Election Day

Source (delegates) The Green Papers IA NH SC NV CA

Vote By Mail: State-wide in California. Ballots mailed to voters Feb 3.

County Registrars begin to send ballots on Feb 3, and all ballots must be in the mail within 5 days.

County elections officials will be required to mail out the VBM ballots no later than 29 days before an election and require mailing to finish within five days. Officials also won’t be allowed to discriminate against any region or precinct in the county by choosing which ballots to mail first within the 5-day period. [source]

Voting Centers. Some Counties.

The Voting Centers replaces neighborhood precincts with County-wide voting centers. You can vote at any voting center in the county. Vote Centers open 10 days before election day, February 22. Each voting center is open at least 8 hours. In the last 3 days before the election, and election day, more Voting Centers open up.

These are (as best I can compile) the counties that are operating Voting Centers.
(from highest voter population to lowest, stats from CA SoS Nov 2018 election report):

Los Angeles6230k5280k2644k1481k
Santa Clara1208k886k403k298k
San Mateo508k399k201k123k
(Above: Voter Center Counties. Below: Statewide)

I don’t know the percentage of PVBM of California registered voters statewide, or even countywide in L.A. Co. I have personally checked voter states for an area of the San Gabriel Valley, and slightly more than half of registered voters are  PVBM— Permanent Vote By Mail. Let’s be slightly more conservative and say that roughly half of the registered voters are PVBM. I don’t know how Paul Mitchell arrived at his 16 million / 75% numbers.

But I do know that based on the numbers in the table above, 6.9 million voters (Dem + No Party Preference, as of Oct 2018 registration numbers) will be eligible to go to Vote Centers as early as Feb 22 and cast their ballots in the Democratic Primary.

First Sunset of 2020

Serious Cloudage on 1-1-2020.

For the first post of the day to be looking in the direction of the setting sun is on-brand for doing that hindsight thing in 2020.

2020 jokes

404 page with eye chart, where type reduces in size: It says 404 Page Not Found a Big arduous site restructure is currently underway Your eyes do not deceive you but the link you clicked is broken (temporarily, we hope) Not on topic: Do you think you might need glasses?

On twitter, there are many jokes about 2020 Hindsight.

@ItsSamG asked, “Wait, has anyone done a 2020 hindsight joke yet?”
@GordonGillies replied, “I did tell my niece she wouldn’t need glasses next year because she’ll be seeing 2020, lol. I know, Dad joke.”

Dudes, dudes. I was SO there, a long time ago.

My reply:

reminds me of my old 404 page for my 2020 hindsight site. (blog started ~ Y2K, got its own domain name in 2001, went fallow after 2009) I had a 404 page like an eye chart. heaven only knows where it is, tho.

I went to the Wayback Machine and found the site and image as it was captured in March 2007, and nabbed a screenshot. Which you see above.

(I reserve the right to edit this page to add other good 2020 Hindsight jokes from Twitter)